MLB picks and expert predictions: Guardians ( ) to edge Twins ( ) in low scoring encounter on Friday night

Our expert MLB handicapper John Lepore looks ahead to Friday night's clash between the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins live on Apple TV and doesn't think there will be much between the two sides...

Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Cal Quantrill

© David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

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John Lepore

MLB Betting Expert

John is a respected MLB analyst, author and handicapper who has over 10 years' experience of betting big on baseball.

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MLB expert picks: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins (Friday, September 9: 8.10 EDT)

FixtureCleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins
WhenFriday, September 9, 8:10 EDT
Likely StartersCal Quantrill vs. Dylan Bundy
Where to watchApple TV

Heading into Tuesday’s action, the Cleveland Guardians hold a slim one-game lead over the Minnesota Twins for the American League Central. Winning the division will be important as both teams are a few games back from the Wild Card race. Friday’s matchup will be the first game of a stretch that will see the Guardians face the Twins eight times over 11 days. This initial battle will go a long way in setting the tone for the AL Central crown with Cleveland to take the pennant.

Cleveland will have Cal Quantrill on the hill for the divisional game. He has pitched well in his first season as a full-time starter. Through 26 starts, Quantrill is 11-5 with a 3.55 ERA. He doesn’t strike out a ton of guys (101 in 152 IP), but he does not allow many baserunners, holding opponents to a .305 OBP. The right-hander depends a lot on his defense, which ranks third in the AL with 56 Defensive Runs Saved.

The Twins will likely counter with Dylan Bundy. Minnesota has been decimated by injuries all year long as 11 different pitchers have started at least three games for the Twins. However, Bundy will be making his team-leading 25th start on Friday. He is 8-6 with a 4.34 ERA and is a similar pitcher to Quantrill. The right-hander has held opposing hitters to a .296 OBP. He has also allowed 16 home runs in just 118.1 innings along with 119 hits.

Guardians player to watch: Steven Kwan

The rookie started out his career on fire and then had a miserable May. At the end of that month, Kwan was slashing .244/.349/.350. Since then, the 25-year-old has slashed .314/.377/.397. He is Cleveland’s leadoff hitter and is integral to their success. In their wins, Kwan has a .930 OPS, in their losses it is .531. While Jose Ramirez may be the big bat in the lineup, Kwan’s contributions cannot be overstated. He should even get some votes for Rookie of the Year ( )

Twins player to watch: Luis Arraez

Arraez has batted at the top of the lineup for most of the season. He is slashing an impressive .314/.377/.424. Much like Kwan, the Twins infielder is important to the team’s success. In Minnesota’s victories, Arraez has a .924 OPS. In their losses, he drops to .675. His .314 batting average is also just .003 behind the AL leader, Xander Bogaerts. That is a race that could come down to the wire.

Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins conclusion and prediction

At the end of June, the Guardians and Twins played a similar stretch of eight games out of 11. Cleveland went 5-3, but five of the eight games were decided by one run. This will be a close matchup as two division rivals fight for the title in the AL Central. For the season, the Guardians are 6-5 against the Twins but have allowed 61 runs while only scoring 45. I expect a close game and a low score.

MLB Picks:

- Guardians at

- Under 7.5 runs @

MLB quick picks for Friday, September 9:

- Mariners @ (vs. Braves)

- Athletics @ (vs. White Sox)

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Tampa Bay
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10/1/2022, 12:10 AM
Miami
Miami @
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10/1/2022, 12:15 AM
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh @
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10/1/2022, 1:38 AM
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Texas @
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Oakland
Oakland @
Seattle
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Chi. White Sox
Chi. White Sox @
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10/1/2022, 2:10 AM
Colorado
Colorado @
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10/1/2022, 2:15 AM
Arizona
Arizona @
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Baltimore
Baltimore @
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Philadelphia
Philadelphia @
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Cincinnati
Cincinnati @
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MLB
10/1/2022, 7:07 PM
Boston
Boston @
Toronto
Toronto
MLB
10/1/2022, 8:05 PM
Arizona
Arizona @
San Francisco
San Francisco
MLB
10/1/2022, 8:10 PM
Oakland
Oakland @
Seattle
Seattle
MLB
10/1/2022, 10:10 PM
Minnesota
Minnesota @
Detroit
Detroit
MLB
10/1/2022, 10:10 PM
Kansas City
Kansas City @
Cleveland
Cleveland
MLB
10/1/2022, 11:10 PM
Miami
Miami @
Milwaukee
Milwaukee
MLB
10/1/2022, 11:15 PM
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh @
St. Louis
St. Louis
MLB
10/1/2022, 11:20 PM
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay @
Houston
Houston
MLB
10/1/2022, 11:20 PM
NY Mets
NY Mets @
Atlanta
Atlanta
MLB
10/2/2022, 12:40 AM
Chi. White Sox
Chi. White Sox @
San Diego
San Diego
MLB
10/2/2022, 1:07 AM
Texas
Texas @
LA Angels
LA Angels
MLB
10/2/2022, 1:10 AM
Colorado
Colorado @
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MLB
10/2/2022, 4:10 PM
Minnesota
Minnesota @
Detroit
Detroit
MLB
10/2/2022, 5:35 PM
Baltimore
Baltimore @
NY Yankees
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10/2/2022, 5:35 PM
Philadelphia
Philadelphia @
Washington
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MLB
10/2/2022, 5:37 PM
Boston
Boston @
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MLB
10/2/2022, 5:40 PM
Kansas City
Kansas City @
Cleveland
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MLB
10/2/2022, 6:10 PM
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay @
Houston
Houston
MLB
10/2/2022, 6:10 PM
Miami
Miami @
Milwaukee
Milwaukee
MLB
10/2/2022, 6:15 PM
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh @
St. Louis
St. Louis
MLB
10/2/2022, 6:20 PM
Cincinnati
Cincinnati @
Chi. Cubs
Chi. Cubs
MLB
10/2/2022, 8:05 PM
Arizona
Arizona @
San Francisco
San Francisco
MLB
10/2/2022, 8:07 PM
Texas
Texas @
LA Angels
LA Angels
MLB
10/2/2022, 8:10 PM
Oakland
Oakland @
Seattle
Seattle
MLB
10/2/2022, 8:10 PM
Chi. White Sox
Chi. White Sox @
San Diego
San Diego
MLB
10/2/2022, 8:10 PM
Colorado
Colorado @
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers
MLB
10/2/2022, 11:08 PM
NY Mets
NY Mets @
Atlanta
Atlanta
MLB
10/3/2022, 10:10 PM
Kansas City
Kansas City @
Cleveland
Cleveland
MLB
10/3/2022, 10:35 PM
St. Louis
St. Louis @
Pittsburgh
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MLB
10/3/2022, 10:40 PM
Chi. Cubs
Chi. Cubs @
Cincinnati
Cincinnati
MLB
10/3/2022, 10:40 PM
Atlanta
Atlanta @
Miami
Miami
MLB
10/3/2022, 11:05 PM
NY Yankees
NY Yankees @
Texas
Texas
MLB
10/3/2022, 11:05 PM
Toronto
Toronto @
Baltimore
Baltimore
MLB
10/3/2022, 11:10 PM
Washington
Washington @
NY Mets
NY Mets
MLB
10/3/2022, 11:10 PM
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay @
Boston
Boston
MLB
10/3/2022, 11:40 PM
Arizona
Arizona @
Milwaukee
Milwaukee
MLB
10/4/2022, 12:10 AM
Philadelphia
Philadelphia @
Houston
Houston
MLB
10/4/2022, 12:10 AM
Minnesota
Minnesota @
Chi. White Sox
Chi. White Sox
MLB
10/4/2022, 1:40 AM
Detroit
Detroit @
Seattle
Seattle
MLB
10/4/2022, 1:40 AM
San Francisco
San Francisco @
San Diego
San Diego
MLB
10/4/2022, 1:40 AM
LA Angels
LA Angels @
Oakland
Oakland
MLB
10/4/2022, 2:10 AM
Colorado
Colorado @
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers
MLB
10/4/2022, 6:05 PM
NY Yankees
NY Yankees @
Texas
Texas
MLB
10/4/2022, 10:10 PM
Detroit
Detroit @
Seattle
Seattle
MLB
10/4/2022, 10:10 PM
Kansas City
Kansas City @
Cleveland
Cleveland
MLB
10/4/2022, 10:35 PM
St. Louis
St. Louis @
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
MLB
10/4/2022, 10:40 PM
Atlanta
Atlanta @
Miami
Miami
MLB
10/4/2022, 10:40 PM
Chi. Cubs
Chi. Cubs @
Cincinnati
Cincinnati
MLB
10/4/2022, 11:05 PM
Toronto
Toronto @
Baltimore
Baltimore
MLB
10/4/2022, 11:10 PM
Washington
Washington @
NY Mets
NY Mets
MLB
10/4/2022, 11:10 PM
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay @
Boston
Boston
MLB
10/4/2022, 11:40 PM
Arizona
Arizona @
Milwaukee
Milwaukee
MLB
10/5/2022, 12:05 AM
NY Yankees
NY Yankees @
Texas
Texas
MLB
10/5/2022, 12:10 AM
Philadelphia
Philadelphia @
Houston
Houston
MLB
10/5/2022, 12:10 AM
Minnesota
Minnesota @
Chi. White Sox
Chi. White Sox
MLB
10/5/2022, 1:10 AM
Detroit
Detroit @
Seattle
Seattle
MLB
10/5/2022, 1:40 AM
San Francisco
San Francisco @
San Diego
San Diego
MLB
10/5/2022, 1:40 AM
LA Angels
LA Angels @
Oakland
Oakland
MLB
10/5/2022, 2:10 AM
Colorado
Colorado @
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:00 PM
LA Angels
LA Angels @
Oakland
Oakland
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:05 PM
Toronto
Toronto @
Baltimore
Baltimore
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:05 PM
NY Yankees
NY Yankees @
Texas
Texas
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:05 PM
St. Louis
St. Louis @
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:10 PM
Philadelphia
Philadelphia @
Houston
Houston
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:10 PM
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay @
Boston
Boston
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:10 PM
Minnesota
Minnesota @
Chi. White Sox
Chi. White Sox
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:10 PM
San Francisco
San Francisco @
San Diego
San Diego
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:10 PM
Detroit
Detroit @
Seattle
Seattle
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:10 PM
Arizona
Arizona @
Milwaukee
Milwaukee
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:10 PM
Washington
Washington @
NY Mets
NY Mets
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:10 PM
Kansas City
Kansas City @
Cleveland
Cleveland
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:10 PM
Chi. Cubs
Chi. Cubs @
Cincinnati
Cincinnati
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:10 PM
Atlanta
Atlanta @
Miami
Miami
MLB
10/5/2022, 8:20 PM
Colorado
Colorado @
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers

Last updated: Sep 30, 2:35 AM UTC

MLB Odds

Moneyline
Run Line
Total
Odds Settings
Game
Sep 29, 22 @ 11:40 PM UTC
Miami
Miami @
Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Sep 30, 22 @ 1:38 AM UTC
Oakland
Oakland @
LA Angels
LA Angels
Sep 30, 22 @ 1:40 AM UTC
Texas
Texas @
Seattle
Seattle
Sep 30, 22 @ 1:40 AM UTC
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers @
San Diego
San Diego

Odds updated: Sep 30, 2:38 AM UTC

MLB standings

AL
NL
  • Division
  • American League Central
  • American League East
  • American League West
  • All Divisions
American League Central W L Pct GB Home Away Conf Div NL Money OU
1 Cleveland Cleveland 88 68 .564 0.0 42-33 46-35 76-60 43-27 12-8 1776 72-78-6
2 Chi. White Sox Chi. White Sox 77 79 .494 11.0 35-43 42-36 68-71 35-38 9-8 -1128 70-78-8
3 Minnesota Minnesota 76 80 .487 12.0 46-35 30-45 68-68 37-33 8-12 -1480 71-73-11
4 Detroit Detroit 63 92 .406 24.5 33-45 30-47 52-83 32-41 11-9 -689 60-82-12
5 Kansas City Kansas City 63 93 .404 25.0 39-42 24-51 56-80 31-39 7-13 -1233 78-76-2

Last updated: Sep 30, 1:59 AM UTC