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2022 PGA Championship expert picks & preview

Bringing you all the in-depth analysis and expert picks from Southern Hills ahead of the 2022 PGA Championship along with the best bets and sign-up offers across a host of different sportsbooks for anyone interested in betting on one of the most prestigious tournaments in golf.

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Bryan Nicholson

Golf handicapper

Bryan has a strong pedigree in sports betting and developed the unique probabilistic course fit profiling model which gives players a conditional rating out of 10 for course suitability. He is the Author of "Angles & Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets", and runs the successful Nicspicks consultancy service.

PGA Championship2022
WhereSouthern Hills, OK
WhenMay 19 - May 22
How to WatchESPN & CBS

It didn’t take long to rinse the Masters from our systems given the new format for golf majors. From April through July, we have a huge tournament each month to look forward to and Southern Hills is next on the schedule, hosting the 2022 PGA Championship.

This track is the favorite of the man currently taking the golfing world by storm and Scottie Sheffler will be looking to ride the wave and add consecutive majors to his belt. Sheffler leads the betting market at +1200 alongside Spaniard Jon Rahm.

The Southern Hills course is situated in Tulsa, Oklahoma and last hosted the PGA Championship in 2007 in what was a week of high temperatures. Tiger Woods was triumphant on a total score of -8 under par and only five players finished in red numbers.

What are the key course metrics when looking to bet the PGA Championship 2022 Winner?

Southern Hills, aesthetically and playability wise, can be described as a blend between Quail Hollow and Riviera with a side of Muirfield village, where solid driving is a prerequisite to a premium on approaches with the mid irons. High trajectory and proximity will be the brief on a treelined parklands venue with some elevated greens. Holes shape both ways with slight doglegs but they are relatively straight throughout, so no particular shot shapers will thrive.

The rough will be grown up so keeping it on the short stuff from the markers will hold the players in good stead. The fibre was up in 2007 and fast conditions catered for only five players shooting under par. The wind can also be a big factor here. The following are the key metrics we will be profiling players for ahead of the PGA Championship golf 2022. A score of 1 means the metric is important, and a score of 3 means there is a very strong premium on this attribute.

1. Total driving: 2

2. Mid to short iron approaches: 3

3. Scrambling: 1

4. High trajectory approaches: 2

5. Wind play: 2

6. Par breakers: 2

PGA Championship 2022Odds
Joh Rahm+1100
Scottie Scheffler+1200
Rory McIlroy+1200
Justin Thomas+1200
Dustin Johnson+1400
Bryson De Chambeau+1400
Collin Morikowa+1400
Brooks Koepka+1600
Cameron Smith+1800

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings on April 27, 2022

What are the course features when profiling for our Southern Hills PGA Championship picks?

Southern Hills measures 7,481 yards from the back tees and plays to a par of 71. Greens are Bent grass. This track is ranked in the top 100 courses and the recent Gil Hanse redesign is hosting its fifth PGA Championship golf major. The wind strength and the depth of the rough will dictate the scoring but expect to see better numbers than the 2007 edition here.

• Relatively small, elevated, and sloping greens

• White marble bunkering around greens

• Treelined parklands with emphasis on finding fairways

• Water hazards and creeks are a prominent feature

• Some elevation changes

PGA Championship golf 2022 picks – southern comfort?

Each player for our PGA Championship picks has a course fit rating borne from the course fit model which lets us know how many strokes per round a player is expected to pick up vs a neutral course for them of a similar rating. Southern Hills is a Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa and Hideki Matsuyama type course but are any of the front runners market value for the PGA Championship 2022?

If we look at the tracks mentioned above as having similarities with Southern Hills, they portray suitability to strong drivers of the ball who can launch it on approach. We can arguably make a case for all of them being value even at shortish odds. If we Dutch bet Morikawa (+1400), McIlroy (+1400) and Thomas (+1400) we produce a combined price of +400 should either one win, or we can back all of them each way with extra places as insurance.

To make a Dutch bet, simply place level win stakes on each player at the same +1400 price. Between them, this trio of PGA Championship Picks are gaining over ten shots on the field largely through course fit.

Xander Schauffele +2200

Xander Schauffele has recently come back onto our radar following his win alongside Patrick Cantlay at the Zurich Classic. Xander was often under-priced in golf majors betting markets, but there looks a bit of value on him for the 2022 PGA Championship.

Xander plays with a baby draw and gets extra distance off the tee with a lower flight. The American ranks in the top 20 on the PGA Tour for strokes gained tee to green. Schauffele is 13th in birdie average in 2022 and has a course fit rating of 8.95, meaning he is expected to pick up about 1 stroke per round here.

Give me a PGA Championship 2022 longshot pick

Talor Gooch +10000

Gooch might just get the gong for most improved player. Owning a very strong amateur pedigree, I love Gooch’s ball flight for the PGA Championship golf test. He can turn it both ways with ease off the markers and fly it high into the greens. If the wind gets up, he will be able to cope better than many. After several near misses Gooch got his maiden win at the RSM Classic at the back end of 2021.

He has continued his progress finishing t14th at the Masters, taking top debutant honors with Harry Higgs and Minwoo Lee. Taylor ranks top 25 in tee to green performance this year and 16th in the key approach stats ahead of the 2022 PGA Championship. He’s also top 10 in strokes gained around the green which never hurts. The American has a progressive form rating of 8.73 at the time of writing.

Can Hideki bag major number two at the PGA Championship 2022?

Hideki Matsuyama (+3500)

I mentioned Hideki above and the Japanese almost has a monopoly now on tracks of Southern Hills’ ilk. Firestone, Quail Hollow, TPC Scottsdale and Narashino all fall under the same course category. It’s only Quail he’s missing a win at; he’s been close there too.

Augusta also falls under this bracket of course type, and after winning the Masters in 2021, Southern Hills is another in the same stable, as Hideki gears up for his tilt at major number two. Unsurprisingly, Matsuyama scores a very high 9.26 on the course-fit-o-meter and is expected to gain around 1.25 shots per round here versus what would be a more neutral course for him.

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