Tennis picks: expert predictions and betting advice for ATP and WTA tours

French Open Outright Previews

Neither of the big guns on the men’s and the women’s side can be overly happy with what the French Open draw has in store for them.

All three of the men’s top favorites were drawn into one half and it’s the world No.1 Novak Djoković who was hit the hardest as he potentially has to go through Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas consecutively to lift the “Coupe des Mousquetaires” on final’s Sunday.

Speaking of, the final should usually be the culmination of a Grand Slam, but the gap between the three top players and the rest is just too big. Djoković and Nadal have only clashed twice before a semifinal in a Grand Slam and who wouldn’t be up for a third time? A potential quarterfinal between two of the goats is what everyone is looking forward to.

French Open Men’s Draw

Quarter 1 – Star-studded segment

It’s been a while since we’ve seen odds of +400 on Rafael Nadal to win the French Open. The 13-time winner lost his No.4 ranking spot to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Rome which only made this kind of draw possible. Nadal’s chronic foot injury is a concern and maybe coming back earlier than expected from his additional fractured rib injury comes back to haunt him now. There’s a lot of guesswork involved when it comes to Nadal’s chances these French Open and the same can be said about top seed Novak Djoković. The Serb was much improved in Rome where he didn’t drop a set on his way to the title, however, he hasn’t played best-of-five tennis in a long time.

We’re still talking about Djoković and Nadal here though, so the two will probably make it to the quarterfinal, even when not at 100%. You have to feel for players like Grigor Dimitrov, Diego Schwartzman or Félix Auger-Aliassime, who could have made a run in every other quarter. In a potential rematch of the 2017 French Open final, Nadal could meet Stan Wawrinka in the second round, which would be a fitting start in this star-studded first quarter.

Quarter 2 – Alcaraz above all

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World No.3 Alexander Zverev would have also wished for a better draw, but the German got drawn into a quarter with new French Open betting favorite Carlos Alcaraz. Even his path to the quarterfinal looks rocky as he might get drawn into some dog fights early on against either Dušan Lajović or Sebastián Báez in round two and Monte Carlo finalist Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in round three.

Carlos Alcaraz is handed some difficult matches as well as he’s projected to take on Sebastian Korda, who beat him in Monte Carlo, in round three and Cameron Norrie, who took a set off him in Madrid, in round four. While they might be able to challenge the young Spaniard, I don’t see them beating him over best of five sets. Alcaraz has earned his current status, at least since he beat Nadal and Djoković back to back in Madrid. He has the highest current Elo rating and his legs should be fresh again after he skipped Rome. It is tough to see anyone other than the new “big three” coming out of the top half, so let’s look for some value in the second half of the draw.

Quarter 3 – Tsitsipas’ turn?

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Stefanos Tsitsipas got bet down heavily to the point that he’s now shorter than Nadal at some books. While he’s the most talented clay-court player in the bottom half of the draw, it’s hard to see value in his current number. Despite his latest results, the Greek hasn’t shown his best tennis so far this season and Lorenzo Musetti will prove a first real test in round one already. After that, Tsitsipas’ draw eases up a bit and there might be a clash with fellow Mouratoglou-disciple Holger Rune in round four. Rune has the game to surprise on clay, but his body comes in his way all too often. I’m not sure how he will survive best-of-five matches when he’s cramping regularly in third sets.

Another player that will be delighted with his spot in the draw is Casper Ruud. The No.8 seed should cruise to the round of 16 - then again, he has never made it past the third round in Paris before. I’m wondering whether his run in Geneva will have an impact as all the other big guns took the week before Roland Garros off. David Goffin or Hubert Hurkacz are there for the taking if Ruud starts feeling his legs and Goffin’s showing in Madrid, where he had match points against Nadal, encourages me to take a little flyer on him to win the quarter.

Quarter 4 – Lively longshots

There aren’t too many obstacles ahead of Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner on their way to the fourth round. While I don’t hate a bet on one of the two, I think value lies in the other eighth of the bottom quarter.

No.2 seed Daniil Medvedev is nowhere to be seen among the French Open betting favorites, and understandably so considering his bad record in Paris and the fact that he’s only played one match after undergoing hernia surgery last month. Clay is his worst surface by far, so let’s see who’s around him in the draw. I wouldn’t be surprised if Medvedev goes down earlier, but Miomir Kecmanović will be tough to overcome in round three.

The Serb is one of the most improved players this season and played Djoković, Nadal and Schwartzman close on clay. His game is probably suited even better to hard courts, but other than Medvedev’s, it also works on the red dirt. Another number I like in the French Open outright betting markets is Pablo Carreño Busta’s. The Spaniard only lost to eventual finalists Djoković in 2020 and Tsitsipas in 2021 here and should be able to get through his section with Marin Čilić as the other seed. His leadup to Roland Garros hasn’t been great, but Carreño Busta has the game to outlast a lot of players if he catches form.

French Open Men’s Outright Picks

- David Goffin 3rd quarter at +2600

- Miomir Kecmanović each-way at +10000

- Pablo Carreño Busta each-way at +15000

French Open Women’s Draw

Quarter 1 – Invincible Iga?

Just like the men’s, the French Open women’s draw is very top-heavy. Both betting favorites Iga Świątek and Simona Halep are part of the first quarter and they are projected to meet in round four already. The two faced each other twice before at Roland Garros in what have been very lopsided matches. Halep steamrolled Świątek 6-0, 6-1 in 2019 before the Pole took revenge the year after, 6-1, 6-2, on her way to her first major title.

Świątek wasn’t able to repeat that feat yet, but it is hard to make a case against her these upcoming French Open. The Polish powerhouse possesses the perfect clay-court game. She’s dynamic and a great mover, resulting in her rally tolerance being outstanding. Her precision is premier as she hits the ball with great depth and placement, even when on the wrong foot, turning defense into offense with her wide range of shots.

That being said, her tennis IQ is excellent and she even worked on her offense, trying to get more aggressive in rallies. This controlled aggression and well-considered shot selection is exactly what a player needs to succeed on clay. Świątek has been showing that to perfection over the last couple of months. The last player to defeat her was Jeļena Ostapenko mid-February. Since then, Świątek has won 28 matches in a row, including five tournament wins. She’s getting even better in the later stages and her scorelines in finals are absurd as she lost less than four games on average throughout her last five finals.

There are some potential dark horses like Ostapenko or Liudmila Samsonova located in the first eighth as well, but the odds couldn’t be high enough for me to bet them on the outright market. The second eighth is up for grabs, but I doubt any of Jessica Pegula, Anhelina Kalinina, Tamara Zidanšek, Ekaterina Alexandrova and Karolína Plíšková would be ready to challenge Świątek or Halep.

Quarter 2 – Inconsistent contenders

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World No.3 Paula Badosa still has a lot to prove at the biggest stages as last year’s quarterfinal run in Paris still remains her best result at Grand Slam level. Her form also decreased a bit as she lost to Daria Kasatkina (in Rome) and Simona Halep (in Madrid) in straight sets. Badosa might also get tested early by Fiona Ferro, Kaja Juvan, Veronika Kudermetova or Elena Rybakina. The latter is looking at a few feasible matches first up and if you can get her at an off-market number, she would be my pick to take on the favorites in the top half.

Danielle Collins and Aryna Sabalenka are the top seeds in the other eighth and while they are both good for a deep run, they can also beat themselves in any given match. Daria Kasatkina is the player that stands out to me in this section, but her odds are just below my entry point given that Świątek looks invincible in this half. Similar to the men’s again, I’m looking for each-way value in the third and fourth quarter.

Quarter 3 – Best of the bunch

Ons Jabeur is playing some brilliant tennis right now as she proved to be the best of the bunch when winning her first WTA 1000 title in Madrid in the absence of Świątek and losing to the Pole in the final of Rome. The French Open draw has been kind to her and I can’t see anyone stopping her until the quarterfinals if she keeps her form as neither of Petra Kvitová, Angelique Kerber and Emma Raducanu are known as clay-court aficionados. The Tunisian has moved into second favorite post-draw and I’m struggling to see value in her decreased odds considering that she’s never made it to the quarterfinal stage in Paris before.

The next eighth is a lot more balanced as we could witness a former US Open semifinal matchup in round two if Belinda Bencic and Bianca Andreescu win their first-round matches. Leylah Fernandez lacks form right now, but she could become a threat as well when catching fire. Maria Sakkari was given the most brutal draw of them all as she might have to go through Karolína Muchová, Amanda Anisimova or Naomi Osaka and the winner of the Bencic/Andreescu/Fernandez section just to make it to the quarterfinal. That makes it easier for me to avoid betting her on the outright market. The Greek still gets tight in big matches, as seen recently when she gave away a 6-1, 5-2, *30-0 lead against Jabeur in the quarterfinal of Rome. Against gritty competitors like Andreescu, this might become a problem once more and I’m taking a chance on the Canadian in the third quarter.

Quarter 4 – Chanceful challengers

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No.5 seed Anett Kontaveit and No.10 seed Garbiñe Muguruza are worth opposing in the next eighth of the draw. While the slow clay isn’t exactly Kontaveit’s preferred surface, something just doesn’t seem right with Muguruza. The 2016 French Open champion is 2-3 this clay swing, losing to Anhelina Kalinina, Yulia Putintseva and Martina Trevisan. Marie Bouzková might go on a little run in this section as Elise Mertens has also been struggling lately, however, it would be a little far-fetched to trust her on the outright market.

Cori Gauff’s draw on the other hand just looks too good for me to pass. Muguruza might bow out against Kaia Kanepi or Beatriz Haddad Maia, both of whom Gauff should be able to grind down. The young American only lost to Simona Halep and Maria Sakkari in Madrid and Rome, so her form could be worse. While her forehand still needs improvement, it is not that much of a liability on clay. Hopefully she can fulfill her potential now that the big spotlight is on other players.

Since trusting Gauff has already hurt me in the past and No.2 seed and defending champion Barbora Krejčíková hasn’t played a competitive tennis match in three months, I’m looking for another outright in the bottom eighth. Victoria Azarenka is a player I didn’t consider betting on before the draw was made, but since she got drawn into Krejčíková’s section, that changed. Azarenka has shown some better form lately and the first set in her match against Świątek in Rome was one to remember.

While the score looked standardly in favor of the Pole, it took her 78 minutes to clinch it 6-4. Azarenka was on par with the world’s best longer than most others recently. If she makes it to the third round, Jil Teichmann will probably await. The Swiss has been breaking through in Madrid where she reached the semifinals, beating Kvitová, Fernandez, Rybakina and Kalinina before losing to Pegula. She also reached the quarterfinal in Rome when she had to retire due to a thigh injury. If she’s fit again, Teichmann’s lefty game can trouble a lot of players, including Azarenka, but I’d want to see her play first.

French Open Women’s Outright Picks

- Bianca Andreescu each-way at +3300

- Coco Gauff each-way at +3300

- Victoria Azarenka each-way at +6600

Read our 2022 daily French Open picks here

WTA Rabat predictions

Nuria Párrizas-Díaz vs Lucia Bronzetti [Thursday 19 May]

The week before Grand Slams presents some unique opportunities for players ranked inside the top 100 that usually don’t make deep runs in bigger tournaments. This is also the case for Nuria Párrizas-Díaz and Lucia Bronzetti this week, who are both bidding for their maiden title at WTA 250 level. Top seed Garbiñe Muguruza lost to Martina Trevisan in round two of the WTA Rabat draw and for ambitious players like her, these tournaments just serve as a warmup while players ranked outside of the top 100 are competing at French Open qualifying.

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Both Párrizas-Díaz and Bronzetti should fancy their chances against everyone else left in the draw while not having the biggest ambitions for Roland Garros. A title at an International event would mean their biggest achievement to date and I expect them both to leave it all on the court in today’s quarterfinal. As Párrizas-Díaz had some lapses in both her first round matches against Carol Zhao and Kristina Mladenovic, Bronzetti moved from underdog to favorite. This match could go back and forth which is why I see value in the over markets here.

WTA Rabat pick:

- Over 21.5 games at -110

French Open men’s qualifying predictions

Andrey Kuznetsov vs Marco Trungelliti [Friday 20 May]

The king of Grand Slam qualifying is back. Marco Trungelliti competed in 23 of the last 26 Grand Slam qualifiers and his 2018 French Open story is unforgotten. The Argentine had already left Paris for his home in Barcelona after having lost his final qualifying match. After a heap of withdrawals, an unlikely eighth lucky loser spot was vacant, so Trungelliti suddenly took some tennis rackets and his family, who were visiting him from Argentina, and drove all the way back to Paris in a rented car. Not only was he able to compete, he also won his first-round match against Bernard Tomic. As a firm believer that the mental part makes out a huge percentage in a single sports like tennis, these emotions will always make this tournament special for Trungelliti. Against Andrey Kuznetsov, the Argentine starts as the deserved favorite after beating Antoine Escoffier and Marcelo Tomás Barrios Vera relatively easily.

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He also made the final at the Challenger event in Madrid last month, beating players like Christopher O’Connell or Thiago Monteiro along the way. Kuznetsov on the other hand only had one win on clay this season entering the French Open qualifying draw. His wins against Ryan Peniston and Tennys Sandgren haven’t been shocking and it will take a lot more to take down Trungelliti. Kuznetsov has never been the same since dealing with a lifelong hip injury and Trungelliti should be the more enduring player in the end as he’s aiming to make a tenth Grand Slam main draw appearance from qualifying.

French Open men’s qualifying pick:

- Marco Trungelliti ML at -150

French Open women’s qualifying predictions

Joanne Züger vs Fernanda Contreras Gómez [Friday 20 May]

When going through the women’s French Open qualifying draw, I don’t think too many would have come up with Joanne Züger and Fernanda Contreras Gómez in the final round. It’s actually the first ever Grand Slam appearance for both women and one of them will make it to the main draw straight away. I was impressed with both players as they beat quality players getting here. Nerves will come into play most likely in this one as this is the biggest match of their respective careers. Therefore, I’m betting the underdog and the over.

French Open women’s qualifying picks:

- Joanne Züger ML at +138

- Over 21.5 games at +103

French Open qualifying parlay

Nastasja Schunk vs Hailey Baptiste [Friday 20 May]

Daniel Masur vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux [Friday 20 May]

Hailey Baptiste managed to fight back after losing the first set against both Olivia Gadecki and Julia Grabher. The young American had to take medical timeouts in both these matches and I’m not sure if she has enough left in the tank to beat talented German Nastasja Schunk. The 18-year-old is another Grand Slam debutant and has developed some serious weapons over the last year or so. Last year’s Wimbledon junior runner-up took sets off Yulia Putintseva and Bernarda Pera this year and only lost 6-7, 5-7 against Elena Rybakina in Stuttgart. The power and depth of Schunk’s groundstrokes will force Baptiste to dig deep which I doubt she will be able to for a third straight time.

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It’s been a while since Geoffrey Blancaneaux burst onto the scene in 2016. At 17 years of age, the Frenchman won the junior competition of Roland Garros, beating players like Corentin Moutet, Denis Shapovalov and Félix Auger-Aliassime. Unfortunately, Blancaneaux couldn’t cope with the big expectations that came along with that title win. Almost six years later, it seems like Blancaneaux has finally settled as he cracked the top 200 for the first time in his career this month. He’s playing some solid clay-court tennis and only lost to superior players like Pedro Cachin or Alejandro Tabilo in recent weeks. Against Daniel Masur, the Frenchman holds the surface advantage and fans will try to help him get over the line to reach his first ever French Open main draw and just his second Grand Slam main draw overall.

French Open qualifying parlay pick:

- Nastasja Schunk ML + Geoffrey Blancaneaux ML at +148