Top-level boxing on a Friday night is somewhat of a rarity, but this pivotal super-lightweight clash is a welcome exception. With Josh Taylor’s imminent move to welterweight, the 140lb category is soon to be lacking both a de facto king and star quality, which presents both contenders here with a considerable opportunity.

José Ramírez (26-1, 17 KOs) is, of course, a man who knows Taylor well, having dropped a decision loss to the Scot in their battle for the undisputed crown last May. The Californian has home advantage here and has been chalked up as the firm betting favorite, with a quote of -600 appearing to be a consistent one across much of the industry. That price implies an 86% win probability for Ramirez, a fighter who has prevailed in 96% of his career bouts and whose sole loss was to the best man around at the time. With wins over the likes of Maurice Hooker, Viktor Postol, and Jose Zepeda, it’s Ramirez who will be the pick of many experts to assume pole position in the division.

In his way stands José Pedraza (29-3, 14 KOs), a Puerto Rican stylist so far better known for his accomplishments at 135lb and further south. Having come up short against both Vasyl Lomachenko and Gervonta Davis (at 130lb), the man nicknamed ‘Sniper’ will know that he has already acquitted himself capably against two of the finest talents in the entire sport. Since stepping up to his new weight class in 2019, Pedraza has fought four times, winning three, and has rebounded well - albeit against modest opposition - since a defeat to Zepeda in his first outing at 140lb. The +400 on offer for Pedraza suggests just a 20% win chance, which would likely be unrepresentative of his chances were this bout to be contested on neutral, rather than pro-Ramirez, ground.

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Neither man is renowned as a power puncher, with only 17 of 26 Ramirez wins coming inside the scheduled duration (65%) and 14 of 29 for Pedraza (48%). It should be no shock, then, to see the ‘fight to go the distance’ market priced lopsidedly, with a slim-looking -250 (71% implied win chance) available that the fight goes to the scorecards after 12 rounds. That we see an early night here is considered a +200 (33%) shot by the layers.

Perhaps the most statistically-sound play here looks to be in the Method of Victory prop, where a decision win for the heavily-favored fighter, competing in his home state, and with an unimpressive knockout percentage, would appear to be a case of connecting the dots. Priced at -138, a 58% implied chance underplays the aforementioned Ramirez KO-to-win percentage and, combined with the fact that four of his five wins (80%) have come via the judges since stepping up to world level, puts stock in the form line.

Ramírez vs Zepeda free boxing pick:

Ramírez by decision or technical decision (-138)

The big main event tops an exciting night of boxing in California. Here's the confirmed José Ramírez vs José Pedraza undercard:

• Joet Gonzalez vs Jeo Santisima

• Gabriel Flores Jr vs Abraham Montoya

• Charlie Sheehy vs Johnny Bernal

The full Ramírez vs Pedraza fight card will be shown live on ESPN+ in the US at 10pm ET. You can stream the Ramírez vs José Pedraza fight on your phone by going to ESPN.com and following the instructions.