Boxing betting picks: Josh Taylor vs Jack Catterall prediction

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Tom Craze

Expert boxing handicapper and betting show host

Boxing expert and handicapper. Host of The Boxing Betting Show and contributor to the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. Full bio here.

Josh Taylor vs Jack CatterallOdds (Draftkings)
WhereOVO Hydro, Glasgow, Scotland
WhenSaturday, Feb 26, 5:30pm ET
Josh Taylor odds-1400
Jack Catterall odds+750

The stakes are high on Saturday as the undisputed super-lightweight champion of the world puts all his belts on the line in an intriguing Scotland vs England clash.

Already being placed in most industry experts’ pound-for-pound lists, Edinburgh’s Josh Taylor (18-0, 13 KOs) has openly spoken of his intention to challenge himself in the more lucrative welterweight class against the likes of divisional kingpin Terence Crawford. First, though, Taylor has business at 140lb for perhaps the final time in a bout that he is expected to win well.

Jack Catterall (26-0, 13 KOs), the WBO’s mandatory challenger, is a talented if unassuming operator, but will be a name largely unfamiliar to an American audience having fought almost exclusively on low-profile cards around the UK. Like Taylor, Catterall is an undefeated southpaw but, according to the oddsmakers, the similarities end there.

At a now industry-best -1000, Taylor has not only been priced up as having a 91% win chance, but has attracted support with bettors at an earlier price of -900. Indeed, the -1000 lies at the very low end of the market, with quotes of -1600 and -2000 also easily found with multiple firms, or 94% and 95% implied probability respectively.

That leaves Catterall as the layers’ rank outsider, with prices in the range of +600 (14%) to +900 (10%) readily available for underdog backers. As would be the case for any man taking on the version of Taylor who blitzed through then-champion Jose Ramirez last May, Catterall is taking a considerable step up in class here. The question, then, is whether he is capable enough to handle the leap.

Does Catterall belong in that same elite tier? The eye test suggests not, although inspection of his resume reveals a fighter that is highly competent, if not spectacular. Catterall outpointed Ohara Davies in October 2018, a shared opponent who Taylor shellacked inside seven rounds a year prior. Furthermore, despite a creditable string of wins at domestic and continental level, Catterall’s best wins - Tyrone Nurse, Tyrone McKenna, Joe Hughes, and Timo Schwarzkopf among them - all went to the judges’ scorecards. With just 13 stoppages in his 26 wins - the same knockout total as Taylor’s but with eight more career fights - the evidence is that Catterall, if not able to outbox the champion, doesn’t possess the concussive one-punch power required to end matters early.

However, with prohibitive odds on the favorite to claim a win by any means, bettors will be looking to the prop markets to find an angle on Taylor.

Of those who’ve crossed the path of the ‘Tartan Tornado’ in recent years, few have escaped unhurt. None of Ramirez, Ivan Baranchyk, Viktor Postol, or Regis Prograis were considered anything other than being among the top contenders at the weight when they fought Taylor, but all except Prograis hit the canvas - and some more than once - along the way.

A -150 price on a Taylor stoppage (60% implied chance) will be a popular wager this weekend, but bettors should note that his knockouts have largely dried up since stepping up to the top level in 2018. In those six fights, from Postol and then into the fiercely difficult World Boxing Super Series tournament setup, four went the distance, with only an out-of-his-depth Ryan Martin and a hapless mandatory challenger in Apinun Khongsong dismissed early.

Statistically, then, the +163 (38%) on a fifth decision in seven contests holds some weight, but it’s an approach that assumes Catterall is on equal footing with the leading names in the division already swept aside by Taylor. More likely is that Taylor - roared on by a vocal Scottish crowd - will decisively stamp himself as the superior man. Catterall’s cautious approach could drag up the round totals and provide an opening for overs bettors, but of similar appeal is the +175 that the hometown favorite will close the show anywhere in the second half of the fight.

Taylor vs Catterall boxing pick :

Josh Taylor in rounds 7-12 (+175)

Josh Taylor vs Jack Catterall undercard

Here's some of the best fights on the undercard of the big event.

  • Josh Taylor vs Jack Catterall

  • Nick Campbell vs Jay McFarlane

  • Robeisy Ramirez vs Eric Donovan

  • Cori Gibbs vs Carlos Perez

  • Ebonie Jones vs Effie Kathopouli

How can I watch Taylor vs Catterall?

The 12 round light welterweight contest will be shown live in both the US and UK. US fight fans can stream the Taylor vs Catterall fight on ESPN+ while boxing fans in the UK can see it live on Sky Sports. Customers will be able to stream the fight via the app on their mobile, tablet or computer device. The main event is expected to start shortly after 5pm ET.

Boxing bets explained

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The simplest bet on boxing that we can make. All we need to do is predict which of the two fighters will be victorious. It doesn’t matter how or when they win, all that counts is that the referee holds aloft our selection’s hand at the end of the fight.

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