Boxing betting picks: Chocolatito vs Martinez fight prediction & odds

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Tom Craze

Expert boxing handicapper and betting show host

Boxing expert and handicapper. Host of The Boxing Betting Show and contributor to the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. Full bio here.

Roman 'Chocolatito' Gonzalez vs Julio Cesar Martinez fight odds and pick

Roman Gonzalez vs Julio Cesar MartinezPreview and Pick
WherePechanga Arena San Diego
WhenSaturday, March 5, 11pm ET
Roman Gonzalez odds-138
Martinez odds+125

Saturday night rounds off a huge weekend of fights in California, and this super-flyweight main event promises to be a memorable one. The 115lb weight class has provided fans with a long list of all-action affairs in recent years, and it would be a surprise to many if Gonzalez and Martinez were not to add to the divisional canon.

Gonzalez (50-3, 41 KOs) is already considered a modern great, and the Nicaraguan will be inducted into the sport’s hall of fame at the first opportunity in years to come. A four-weight world champion, ‘Chocolatito’ has nothing left to prove, yet here takes on Martinez (18-1, 14 KOs), a surging knockout machine seven years his junior as a late replacement for Juan Francisco Estrada, ruled out of this date after contracting Covid-19.

Chocolatito fancied by sportsbooks

It’s Gonzalez who has been handed favoritism by the oddsmaker, but at an industry-best price of -125 (56% implied probability) it’s only by a whisker. Across the industry, the favorite can be found no wider than -150, which gives an indication of just how well-matched the two men are. Indeed, Martinez, despite stepping up from 112lb to make his world-level super-flyweight bow here, can be found at even money (+100, 50% implied chance) in places, which positions this contest squarely in pick ‘em territory. At the bookmakers’ most generous, the Mexican is a slender underdog and can be backed at +125.

Truly good matchmaking can often be measured by the oddsmakers’ indecision, and such is the intriguing nature of this fight that even the props are fairly evenly split. Similar to the outright win market, the layers are firmly divided on whether we see the full 12 rounds completed: even money can also be had on the fight to end inside the distance with a host of firms, while others go -110 or -138 that either man scores the stoppage. Conversely, then, other traders make it evens (+100) that we hear the final bell, with some books also offering slight odds-on quotes of -120 and -125 on the same outcome. Neither a 12-round war of attrition, or a topsy-turvy, knockdown-filled encounter - or a combination of both - would feel out of place here.

In a coin toss, though, taking the plus-money is always a smart move. The remarkable longevity of Gonzalez - and the fact that he’s bounced back from losses with aplomb previously - is cause for concern when doing so, but, at 34 years old and with 53 professional bouts to his name, a fresh, hard-charging, explosive puncher like Martinez could spell trouble. Few would complain, however, if Gonzalez added another winning chapter to his storied career.

Chocolatito vs Martinez free boxing pick

Martinez (+125)

Roman Gonzalez vs Julio Cesar Martinez full undercard

Here's the full card for the eagerly awaited clash in San Diego California.

  • Roman 'Chocolatito' Gonzalez vs Julio Cesar Martinez

  • Mauricio Lara vs Emilio Sanchez

  • Angel Fierro vs Juan Carlos Burgos

  • Souleymane Cissokho vs Roberto Valenzuela

Where can I stream Chocolatito vs Martinez?

The full Chocolatito vs Martinez fight card will be streaming live on DAZN around the world (except Argentina, Chile and Colombia). DAZN is available on web browsers at and also apps available on TV and streaming devices including smartphones, iPads and tablets, Amazon Fire TV, Amazon Fire sticks, Playstation 5 and Xbox.

Boxing bets explained

To Win Fight

The simplest bet on boxing that we can make. All we need to do is predict which of the two fighters will be victorious. It doesn’t matter how or when they win, all that counts is that the referee holds aloft our selection’s hand at the end of the fight.

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