College football picks: Week 11

Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions

WHERE: Beaver Stadium

WHEN: Nov 13, 12:00pm ET

SPREAD: PSU +1 | O/U 48.5

This BIG10 match-up – with Penn State hosting the Michigan Wolverines – is mouth-watering. The road team is still recovering from that rivalry game loss against Michigan State, while Penn will look to improve their 6-3 season. For me, the over seems like the safest play here. Even without Clifford being the starting QB for Penn State in this one, I expect them to put up some points against the Wolverines, whose defense has raised quite a few concerns in recent weeks. That said, their offense is working – both on the ground, and through the air. Michigan scored 30+ points against good defensive teams like Wisconsin, Washington and Michigan State, so I like them to put 20+ points on the board this Saturday. The Nittany Lions should also be good for roughly the same, so I am happy to take the over in this spot.

Pick: Over 48 points

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Kansas State Wildcats

WHERE: Bill Snyder Family Stadium

WHEN: Nov 13, 12:00pm ET

SPREAD: KSU -6.5 | O/U 47

The Kansas State Wildcats look to improve their current win streak, against an average looking West Virginia Mountaineers team. The Wildcats have been sharp in the past three weeks, as they put some important wins on the board against Texas Tech, Kansas and TCU. On the other hand, we have a West Virginia team who has been struggling on the road this year. Their defense is not as good as last season, and their offensive unit is not consistent enough to make up for their defensive mistakes. They won against Iowa State, but that was their only win against an above average team from this season. They are not battle-tested, and I don’t expect them to keep up with an in-form Kansas State on the road here.

Pick: Kansas State Wildcats -6.5 points

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Virginia Cavaliers

WHERE: Scott Stadium

WHEN: Nov 13, 7:30pm ET

SPREAD: UVA +5.5 | O/U 64.5

On paper, this match-up from Virginia between the Cavaliers and the Fighting Irish looks like the most exciting game from college football this week. Both teams can produce some explosive offensive plays and that creates great context for an over play here. Personally, I don’t see how this one stays under the total. Especially with Notre Dame missing some important players in their defensive unit this week. Both teams managed to have 100+ points matches in the past two weeks, and this one being a prime time match, I expect two big offensive performances once again. I can see Notre Dame winning and covering here, but the safe play for me is the over.

Pick: Over 64.5 points