NFL picks: Week 11

Indianapolis Colts (5-5) @ Buffalo Bills (6-3)

WHERE: Highmark Stadium

WHEN: Nov 21, 13:00pm ET

SPREAD: Buffalo -7 | O/U 49.5

After an impressive start, the Bills' form has stuttered somewhat – almost the reverse of a Colts team that faltered early on but has righted some wrongs over the past month. That said, having given up 34 points to the Titans in Week 6, the Bills have conceded only a fraction more (37) in their last three games combined. They know the Pats are hunting them down in a big way.

With the Colts averaging a fraction over 30 points per game in their last seven games, how they match up against the league's best scoring defense will be key. The visitors can, however, almost guarantee running back Jonathan Taylor will get his usual TD given his form. For two good teams, seven points feels a fraction too wide.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +7

New Orleans Saints (5-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)

WHERE: Lincoln Financial Field

WHEN: Nov 21, 13:00pm ET

SPREAD: Philadelphia -2 | O/U 43

Coming off the back of two tight losses to the Falcons and Titans it's a virtual pick em in Philadelphia for Sean Payton's men. Saints will be hoping Alvin Kamara will be back after a knee injury, but that remains in doubt and backup QB Trevor Siemian has kept things ticking over enough to remain competitive.

What to make of the Eagles? If play-calling allows Jalen Hurts to run like he did against Denver then he can boost an already better-than-average run game. With the home side averaging over 32 points in their last three games and Kamara hopefully back on the field for the Saints the over looks a tad more appealing than it should.

Pick: Over 43 points

Baltimore Ravens (6-3) @ Chicago Bears (3-6)

WHERE: Soldier Field

WHEN: Nov 21, 13:00pm ET

SPREAD: Chicago +4.5 | O/U 44.5

This is a bounce back spot if ever there was one. With the Ravens previously looking in fine form last week's loss to Miami was a disaster. With that out of their system they should find points easier to come by against a Chicago team that looks like it could be without Khalili Mack and Eddie Jackson – key components of the Bears defense.

While Justin Fields continues to improve in his rookie season in Chicago, the team are coming off a four-game losing streak and still struggle offensively, despite Fields' best efforts. The Ravens defense is decent against the run, but poor (last in the league) against the pass. That should be less of an issue against a poor Bears pass offense, and they should have enough on the ground to stay beyond the number.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -4.5

New York Giants (3-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)

WHERE: Raymond James Stadium

WHEN: Nov 22nd 8:15pm ET

SPREAD: Tampa Bay -11.5 | O/U: 49.5

The Giants make their second appearance of the month on Monday Night Football when they travel to Tampa Bay. They were an afterthought in the race for the post season when staying within a field goal of Kansas City in week 8 and their playoff prospects remain equally bleak in week 11.

In the NFC there is a competitive logjam of mediocre sides realistically fighting for a wildcard spot and the Giants have only a 5% chance of successfully playing knockout football in January. Their most impressive win came on the road in New Orleans, who are currently a coin flip to make the post season. But they’ve lost to the three likely post season teams they’ve met by a combined 48-102.

They are a slightly below par offensive side when both passing or running the ball and they’ve scored 19.9 points per game against defenses that usually concede nearly 23 points per game. And while they are a solidly above average defense against the pass, they struggle to contain the run, allowing opposition sides who score 24 points per game to score at that same rate.

QB Daniel Jones posted impressive figures in weeks 2 and 4, but an early concussion in week 5 saw him return in week 6 with his passing and running yards subsequently greatly reduced. A bye will help the injury situation, especially to Saquon Barkley, whose all-purpose yards have been missed.

Tampa Bay has hit a two-game losing streak, but it has coincided with injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown, two of Tom Brady’s favorite and most reliable receivers and has led to miscues and interceptions. When fully fit, Tampa provides Brady with good protection and a depth of targets. He’s throwing half a yard per attempt further than the defenses he’s faced are allowing and he is throwing on 67% of their offensive snaps. Tampa average 31 points against defenses that allow just 23.5 points per game.

A major aspect of their game plan revolves around passing the ball often and well. But with a depleted receiver corps, first downs and extended drives are at a season low during the two losses.

A top five ground game complements Tampa’s go to offensive approach and they also have a top five defense, better against the run than the pass. Tampa couldn’t get WFC off the field on 3rd down, last week, but these runs of clutch completions rarely persist. Tampa had around a one in four chance of securing the top NFC seeding at the peak of their season, but a 6-1 start has become 6-3, they are just a win ahead in the NFC South and the other three NFC divisions are now favored to send the number one seed to the post season.

Scoring rates favor Tampa by 30-17, but with injury causing Tampa offensive issues, which are unlikely to be resolved by Monday and a “back on track” win more important than winning margins, take the Giants and the likely 11 points start to again keep it close on Monday night.

Pick: New York Giants to cover the spread