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Mark Taylor

Football data analyst

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs: Odds, picks, tips and predictions for NFC matchup

Bengals @ Chiefs odds(via Fanduel)
WhereArrowhead Stadium
SpreadKansas City -7
Total54.5
WhenSunday Jan 30
Time3pm ET

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship game on Sunday. Both teams have two of the best offenses in football, and so far throughout the playoffs. The Chiefs have scored 42 points in both of their playoff games so far, while the Bengals have scored 19 and 26, despite having played some tough defenses.

The Chiefs come into the game as the favorite to win the Super Bowl, and rightfully so. Patrick Mahomes is playing lights football out and refusing to let his team lose. That was clear in the last game against the Bills, when down three points with 13 seconds left, he managed to get his team down the field into field goal range to take the game into overtime. It was a truly incredible feat in one of the best games of the season, and I don’t think we’ll see another thriller quite like that one.

Cincinnati is also coming off a bit of a thrilling games themselves. They beat the number one seeded Tennessee Titans on the last play of the game, with a 52-yard field goal. Joe Burrow continued his incredible form, posting 348 passing yards with zero touchdowns and one questionable interception. He still posted a very respectable 93.1 passer rating, despite being sacked nine times! Most impressive to me was his game winning drive - when the offense had struggled most of the day, he figured out a way to put his team in a position to win. This game proved to me that the Bengals can win games anyway they need to - in high-scoring shootouts - and now in low-scoring tough games as well.

No stopping magic man Mahomes

In Mahomes’ last five games he has been incredible, posting 15 touchdowns to only one interception, with 1,369 yards passing. On top of his incredible passing stats, after the Buffalo game Mahomes now ranks 11th in postseason rushing average (minimum 50 attempts) at 5.9 yards rushing yards per attempt. This stat proves he literally does anything and everything for this offense. As most of his rushing attempts are on third down to convert the first down, he just never says die and his teammates believe as long as they have him, they always have a chance to win.

These two teams faced off just a couple of weeks ago here at Arrowhead Stadium. The Bengals took that game 34-31 in what was a must win matchup on their road to the playoffs. The Chiefs were also playing for the No.1 seed that week as well. In that game both quarterbacks played exceptionally well, Burrow posted four touchdowns with 446 yards passing, zero interceptions with a rating of 148. Mahomes also played well throwing for 259 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions and had a passer rating of 113.9. In this matchup it was basically the Jamar Chase show, he went crazy against this Chiefs defense, torching almost every possession. He posted an insane line of 11 catches for 266 yards and three touchdowns, just truly remarkable.

Why we should look at the over

With these two quarterbacks leading these completely loaded offenses, l really like the over 54.5 points here. After watching Mahomes score 42 points in consecutive playoff wins I don’t think the Bengals defense can slow him down. Also, we must consider there were 25 points scored in the last two minutes of the Chiefs-Bills game, which was truly insane.

When these two teams played in week 17, the total points hit 65, and I expect something similar on Sunday. The Chiefs lost Tyrann Mathieu to a concussion against the Bills, and he is questionable to play as of now. That won’t help the Chiefs try to slow down this Bengals offense, and even if he plays, I don’t expect the Chiefs defense to be the deciding factor. When these two teams face other top-quality offenses, we have seen high-scoring shootouts and I expect that trend to continue. I’m taking the over 54.5 total points as I expect another thrilling offensive game that goes back and forth. The way these two offenses are playing I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team with the ball last be the victor, as we saw last week in the Chiefs-Bills game.

NFC championship Chiefs vs Bengals free betting pick : Over 54.5 points (-110)

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