WHERE:Arrowhead Stadium
SPREAD:Kansas City -2
DAY:Sunday Jan 23
TIME:6:30pm ET

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Sam Robinson

Football handicapper

Buffalo Bills (12-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-5): Odds, picks, tips and predictions for NFC matchup

The Kansas Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional round. Two of the best teams in the conference facing off, with the winner of this game most likely be the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Both teams are coming off massive blowout wins in the AFC wild card round. The Chiefs beat Pittsburg 42-21, while Buffalo dominated the Patriots 47-17. And these games were even more one-sided than the scores suggest. Both teams gave up garbage time touchdowns when their games had well been decided.

Patient Patrick

The Chiefs find themselves in fabulous form, winners in 10 of their last 11 and scoring an average of 30.3 PPG in that span. Most of that is due to Patrick Mahomes finding his patience and not trying to win the game on every play. He has played fantastic and is coming off a near perfect game against the Steelers. In that game he completed 30/39 of his passes, while throwing for 404 yards, with five touchdowns and one interception, for a passer rating of 138.2. The Chiefs started slowly in the first quarter before reeling off seven straight touchdowns to put the game away.

Buffalo also find themselves in great form at the moment having won five straight coming into the AFC Divisional Round. During that winning streak they have scored an average of 33.4 PPG. A lot of that credit goes to Josh Allen, who has been fantastic for most of the season. Buffalo are coming off a stellar performance in which they couldn’t do anything wrong. Right from the opening kickoff the Bills took the ball down the field and put seven points on the board, setting the tone early.

Allen might’ve just put together his best game of the season against the Patriots last week. In that game he completed 21/25 of his passes while throwing for 308 yards, with five touchdowns and zero interceptions, for an almost perfect passer rating. His 157.6 is just 0.7 off the perfect passer rating of 158.3, the maximum that you can get in the NFL. He also added six carries for 66 yards, with a long of 26 yards. Josh Allen does everything for this offense, and when he is playing well, he is one the scariest quarterbacks in the NFL.

Points, points, points

This won’t be the first time these two teams have met this season – they played each other in week five here at Arrow Head Stadium. The Bills took that game with relative ease winning 38-20 in a rout of the Chiefs. However, the Chiefs were struggling at that point in the season and they’re much-improved since then. That much is evident in their record, as they have only lost two games after suffering that home defeat to Buffalo.

With the form these two offenses find themselves in I really like the over 54.5 total points. After watching Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes absolutely torch two of the best defenses in football, both scoring over 40 points, I just don’t think either defense finds enough success to contain these offenses. Also, you have to consider the point total hit 58 when these two met in week five.

When they played last year in the playoffs the game ended on 62 total points in favor of the Chiefs 38-24. When these two teams have faced other quality offenses during the regular season, we have had some high-scoring games. For the Bills against good teams this bet has landed in five out of seven games. As for the Chiefs when facing quality opponents this bet has landed in nine of the 13 matchups. Everything says points, points, points to me so back the over 54.5 total.

NFL playoff pick: Over 54.5

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