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UFC 270 Ngannou vs Gane free picks


Ewan Lavender

UFC writer and expert tipster

Sports Writer & Data Analyst

Where: Honda Center, Anaheim, California

When: Saturday, January 22nd

Ngannou odds: +100

Gane odds: -118

Francis Ngannou (16-3) finally makes the first defence of his heavyweight crown on Saturday night when he takes on the interim champion Ciryl Gane (10-0). On paper, the undefeated Frenchman provides the champion with his most difficult match-up possible.

Gane has only had 10 professional fights, but he has developed a seamless skillset already. He has some of the best movement I’ve ever seen from a heavyweight. He is athletic, quick and powerful, with a full striking arsenal and almost flawless technique. He is also a brilliant grappler with a strong clinch and slick floor game.

Ngannou’s knockout power

However, as we have seen from Ngannou before, skills count for nothing if he connects with one of his missiles. The champ is arguably the hardest hitter in combat sports, with only maybe Deontay Wilder rivalling him. He will have the ability to knock Gane out from any range and he doesn’t even need a clean shot to separate the Frenchman from consciousness. So, the question is whether Ngannou can find a home for one of his cinder blocks before Gane works him and breaks him down with his technique and speed. Although Ngannou lands with 41% of his strikes in the UFC the key stat here is Gane’s striking defence, which is a very impressive 62%. This is all down to his slick movement.

Speed kills for Cyril

We expect Gane to tire Ngannou out by keeping the fight on the feet for the first two rounds at least. He’ll be looking to jump in and out of range, pierce the champion with his jab, straight left and kicks to the leg while making him swing and miss. If Ngannou begins to fade, Gane will enforce the clinch to sap the energy leading to a late knockout or submission.
In my opinion, Gane is a puzzle Ngannou does not have the nous to solve - but he does have the knockout power to completely destroy that puzzle - so it’s impossible to bet against Ngannou with any certainty. That said, the most similar fighter to Ngannou on the roster is Derrick Lewis - Gane absolutely schooled him in his last fight. He read everything the knockout artist threw at him and picked him apart strike by strike and then broke his will in the clinch until he became a punching bag leading to a third-round knockout.

Lewis only landed 16 strikes in the whole fight compared to Gane’s 98. Gane kept making him miss and Lewis threw a total of 37 frustrated strikes which were all bombs as he hunted the knockout. This is what we expect Ngannou to do – something that will only tire him out further. The difference between Gane and other more accomplished heavyweights is his defense and movement and that is the key to beating Ngannou. If he avoids Ngannou’s hands, he will deplete him with all the tools at his disposal and finish him in the later rounds. A knockout for Ngannou as the underdog is the smart bet, but our pick is a late finish for Gane.

Ngannou vs Gane free picks:

Gane via KO/TKO: +260

Gane via Submission: +1000

UFC bets explained

To win fight

This is the most straightforward bet you will find at UFC betting sites. Which of the fighters do you think will emerge victorious from the Octagon? Simply make your choice after studying the form and the odds available and place a wager in line with your judgment.

Most popular weight divisions men

It’s all action in the Octagon when the big men get stuck into each other – and heavyweight fights are among the most popular when it comes to UFC betting.

Fighters from Brazil and the US have dominated this division since 2005, with America’s Stipe Miocic top of the pile after taking the title for the second time in 2019. Miocic had lost his crown to compatriot Daniel Cormier in 2018, but took revenge the following year when he beat his fellow American with a fourth-round technical knockout.

One leading contender today is Francis Ngannou – the Cameroonian-French fighter is the hardest recorded puncher in UFC history.

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Keep a sharp eye on UFC online betting sites in the countdown to a fight. Sportsbooks may enhance their odds on a particular market – and an outcome you were thinking of backing anyway suddenly becomes even more lucrative. These offers are sometimes short-lived, in which case, just like Demetrious Johnson in his prime, you must move fast.

Money back if the fight goes the distance

It’s disappointing when you have wagered on a bout to finish in a particular round or method and both fighters are still on their feet when the fight finishes. However, this promotion offers you some insurance; if the fight goes to a verdict you’ll get your stake back, either in cash or as a free bet.

Money back if the fight finishes in a tie

Ties are not commonplace in UFC but they do happen. If this offer applies and you back a fighter to win, you’ll get your stake back either as cash or in the form of a free bet, if the fight ends in a stalemate.

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